Three programs, three payout models, one product category. Which do you promote?
Most people pick the biggest headline number. The right answer depends on retention, and it's not hard to calculate.
The three models
CPA (cost per action) — a flat amount per conversion. $100 per signup, $40 per trial, $250 per funded account. You get paid once.
Revshare — a percentage of the sale. 20% of a $300 purchase is $60. Usually also once, on the initial transaction.
Recurring — a percentage of every payment the customer makes, for as long as they stay. 25% of $80/month, month after month.
There are hybrids: a CPA plus a smaller recurring percentage is common in SaaS, and lifetime revshare exists but is rarer than it used to be.
The arithmetic that matters
For anything subscription-based, the comparison is between a flat payment now and a stream of smaller payments over time. The stream's value depends entirely on how long customers stay.
Take a $100/month product, comparing a $200 CPA against 20% recurring:
| Customer stays | CPA earns | 20% recurring earns | |---|---|---| | 3 months | $200 | $60 | | 6 months | $200 | $120 | | 10 months | $200 | $200 | | 24 months | $200 | $480 | | 36 months | $200 | $720 |
The breakeven is ten months. Beyond that, recurring wins, and it keeps winning indefinitely.
So the real question is: how long do this product's customers actually stay?
Retention by category, roughly
- Business-critical software (accounting, CRM, payroll, hosting) — years. Switching costs are high and the tool is embedded in workflows.
- Developer and infrastructure tools — long, for the same reason.
- Marketing tools — moderate. Churns when budgets tighten or campaigns end.
- Consumer subscriptions (VPN, streaming, meal kits) — short. Many cancel within months, and annual plans often don't renew.
- Courses and one-off purchases — no retention to speak of; CPA or revshare is the only sensible model.
The pattern: recurring is worth more for products people genuinely can't leave, and worth less for products people try and abandon. A generous recurring rate on a high-churn consumer product is often worth less than a modest flat fee.
Where CPA is clearly better
Short cookie windows. If attribution expires quickly, take the money at conversion.
High-churn products. A meal kit with a three-month average life won't out-earn a decent CPA.
Free trials that convert poorly. Some programs pay CPA on trial starts rather than paid conversions. That can be excellent value — you're paid for an easier action.
When you need cash now. Recurring compounds beautifully in year two. It pays very little in month two. If you're funding the site from its own earnings, that timing matters.
Where recurring is clearly better
Sticky B2B software. The single strongest case in affiliate marketing. Refer a business to a tool it embeds in daily operations and you may earn for years.
When you're building an asset. Recurring income compounds: every month's referrals stack on top of the last. A year of consistent referrals produces a base income that arrives whether or not you publish anything new.
High-ticket subscriptions. 20% of $500/month is $100 monthly, forever. Very few CPAs compete.
The traps
"Lifetime" rarely means lifetime. Read the terms — many programs cap recurring commissions at 12 or 24 months. That changes the arithmetic completely.
Revshare on a discounted price. If the customer uses a coupon, your percentage is of the discounted amount.
Clawbacks. Refunds, chargebacks and fraudulent signups get deducted, sometimes months later.
Downgrades. Recurring commissions follow the plan. A customer moving to a cheaper tier takes your commission down with them.
Tier resets. Some programs pay higher rates at volume, then reset the counter annually.
A simple rule
Work out the expected value per referral:
- CPA: the flat amount, minus expected refunds.
- Recurring: monthly commission × realistic average customer lifetime in months.
Then compare. If they're close, take the CPA — money now is worth more than the same money later, and it carries no churn risk.
If recurring is more than about 1.5× the CPA on that arithmetic, take the recurring, provided the product is genuinely sticky.
You can filter the directory by payout model to see which programs use which — just confirm the current terms with the program before committing, since these change without notice.